Very Elizabeth Bay

I'm gradually exploring the trendy cafes around my new neighbourhood, Potts Point and Elizabeth Bay. This morning I bought a coffee from a place with a display of some intriguing reed and straw sculptures, along with a biography of the artist, Diablo Mode. I was amused by the following line: "In 2004, he was the only male in the first major overview of Basketry in Australia."

Joining Twitter

I've decided to continue this "2011 Lessons" theme, but on a Twitter account. If you're interested, here it is.

2011 Lessons #1

Don't meditate right after listening to the Top 40.

Election Reflections

I found two things fascinating last night - the speeches from the major party leaders, and the goals of the rural independents.

Gillard started out by congratulating the independent and Green MPs who now hold the balance of power. She named all 5 of them individually and expressed a desire to work with them. Gillard had immediately shifted into negotiating mode, flattering the independents and seeming to relish the backroom dealing that lies ahead.

By contrast, Abbott began by celebrating the swing to the Liberal Party and thanking the voters for their support. Only right at the end did he briefly mention the independent and Green members, and he didn't utter any of their names. Clearly Abbott wanted to keep campaigning as long as he could.

All of the independent MPs were interviewed by phone,* with both Windsor and Oakeshott naming "stable government" as their top priority. The use of the exact same phrase indicated they had spoken and established a common goal, but at the time I couldn't work out what exactly they meant. This morning it hit me - the three rural independents (Windsor, Oakeshott & Katter) will negotiate for fixed parliamentary terms. They'll promise to support a minority government for the full 3 years, in return for the PM promising to call the next election in August 2013, along with a referendum on fixed terms. Windsor made exactly that deal in a similar situation, after the 1991 NSW state election, and he'll try to do it again. It will allow the independents to hold the balance of power for the maximum possible time, and either major party will take any chance to be in government rather than in opposition for the next three years.

Getting ahead of myself here, but fixing the electoral cycle in its current state would make for an interesting dynamic. For this election the new House of Reps will take over in September / October and the new Senate will take over next July. A fixed term deal could set that arrangement in stone, meaning that every election would be followed by 9 months of a lame duck Senate.

*Nobody sent a camera crew to film the new kingmakers! I didn't see a hung parliament coming; it's some comfort that the TV networks were equally blindsided.

Sexist Observation on the Election Debate ...

... but relating to the listeners rather than the speakers.

I tuned in to the Channel 9 footage of the debate, so I could watch the "worm." This is a line graph scrolling across the bottom of the screen, showing the real time responses of a studio audience, either favourable or unfavourable. A total gimmick, but so was everything Gillard and Abbott said.

As an added wrinkle this year, there were separate worms for female and male opinions. The two genders mostly agreed, but the women reacted more quickly. In response to a popular or unpopular statement, the female line jumped up or down within seconds, while the male line trended in the same direction over half a minute.

I'm not sure what that means. Are women more volatile and less reflective? Are men too lazy to press a button on an audience reaction meter?

Football World Cup Predictions

I've got a feeling the African teams will do well, much like the Asian teams in Japan/Korea 2002. Also, I can't help thinking that Australia's team was at its best 4 years ago.

So those predictions were pretty vague. Time for some detailed programmatic specificity, so that I can be proven wrong in a month's time.

Champion: Argentina (they'll be too scared of their coach's reaction not to win)
Runner-up: Netherlands
Losing semi-finalists: Cameroon, England

Group A qualifiers: Mexico, France
Group B qualifiers: Argentina, South Korea
Group C qualifiers: England, United States
Group D qualifiers: Germany, Ghana
Group E qualifiers: Netherlands, Cameroon
Group F qualifiers: Italy, Slovakia
Group G qualifiers: Brazil, Côte d'Ivoire
Group H qualifiers: Spain, Chile

Unsafe as Houses

I've been reading a bit about the Henry review of Australia's taxation system, and I'm disappointed that it didn't eliminate the tax break on investment property. That would have been a great way to let some air out of our housing bubble, which has been one of the few around the world not to burst. Prices haven't declined much lately and the price to rent ratio is 56% above its long-run average. It's like Australia got the one empty barrel in a game of Russian roulette, but our luck can't hold out forever.

I know quite a few friends who borrowed to buy a second property, then rented it out to pay the mortgage. The tax incentive plays a big part in this - mortgage payments on investment properties are tax deductible. Most of their money is tied up in a leveraged, illiquid investment, with the potential to cause trouble in a severe recession. They could easily lose their tenant, see the property value decline below the mortgage value, and be stuck in a situation where they can't cover the repayments, or get out from under the mortgage by selling.

I think people under 35 are particularly at risk here, because we were children or adolescents during Australia's last major recession in the early 1990s. We just haven't experienced widespread sackings and the chaos that follows. It's quite possible that Australia's boom will last another 5 or 10 years, but that's only going to make the bursting of the bubble more painful when it happens.

While borrowing to buy your own house brings advantages besides just accumulating capital, borrowing to buy additional houses or flats is pure property speculation. It's a pity that our tax system will continue to encourage it.

One Last Day of Summer

I managed to see a world championship sporting event today - for free and by accident!

It started with a warm, sunny holiday Monday. This prompted me to cycle to Dee Why, although I cheated a bit by taking the Manly ferry and bypassing the steep hills of the lower north shore. The northern beaches aren't flat either, but riding from Manly to Dee Why was a pretty trip and a bit of an exploration. I had just enough energy for a brief swim - the water was surprisingly warm, and the waves were a good size.

Then I was able to watch one of the contests on the women's world championship surfing tour, which was taking place a little further along the beach. It was particularly impressive to watch the athletes gliding and turning over the waves, after I'd just spent twenty minutes wimping out and diving under all of them. There was a crowd of a few thousand enjoying the surfing, as well as a food festival and a band.

One other amusing part of the day is that I simultaneously have salty surf hair and squished helmet hair.

Worst Anti-Drug Ad Ever

I just heard a radio ad aiming to discourage cannabis use. It had a male voice talking about how he had been a good swimmer, but then threw it all away because of weed. It finished up with the line "If it wasn't for marijuana, I could have been, you know, famous or something."

Now there might be good reasons to avoid marijuana, but saying it will ruin your swimming career is a pretty poor argument. Surely even the potheads remember Michael Phelps' 14 Olympic gold medals, and also his famous bong photos?

Putney Punting

I've gone on a fair few cycling expeditions this summer, taking advantage of all my spare time. Maybe it was the perfect weather, or feeling a bit loopy after not sleeping well the previous night, but I decided to go on a last long ride before starting work on Monday. So I made a circuit that included the Putney Punt.

It's a real anachronism - a little cable ferry that carries up to 15 cars across the Parramatta River between Mortlake and Putney. It became totally redundant when the six-lane Gladesville Bridge opened in 1964, only a couple of kilometres downstream, but some sort of heritage order keeps the ferry running. It's even toll-free!

I first cycled to the north side of the river by way of Drummoyne and the Gladesville Bridge, and then made my way across to the ferry's embarkation point. I forgot to bring any sort of map, and received rather vague directions when I asked in Putney, but was lucky enough to find the right headland on my first try. I even had a few minutes to wait for the ferry to leave, and watch a pelican circling overhead.

There was another wildlife moment as I rode home along the shore of Exile Bay. I passed a cormorant swimming almost submerged, with only its head poking out of the water. Then a large fish, about the size of a big carp, leapt out of the water for a second or two. It was as if the birds and the fishes wanted to challenge my ideas about their natural elements!

Bill Impresses Me All Over Again

I've been reading "The Merchant of Venice" this week, the first time I've read Shakespeare in a while. What really struck home was the way he scatters brilliant asides - clever lines that aren't strictly necessary, but give the audience something to consider in addition to the main plot and themes.

Here are a few examples, just from the first half of one play:
"I can easier teach twenty what were good to be done, than be one of the twenty to follow mine own teaching." I, ii, 16-19
"I like not fair terms and a villain's mind." I, iii, 81
"... For lovers ever run before the clock." II, vi, 4
"All things that are, are with more spirit chased than enjoy'd." II, vi, 12-13
"... I fear you do speak upon the rack, Where men enforced do speak anything." III, ii, 32-33

Other drama sometimes manages this trick, but often the words of wisdom are culturally specific (e.g. "... don't make fun of grad students, they just made a terrible life choice," from The Simpsons). Shakespeare's insights are much more universal.

Climate Change Optimism

I just came across the most hopeful article I've read on climate change for ages.

The one paragraph summary is that there is already a limited cap and trade program involving ten states on the east coast of the U.S. Another seven states in the western U.S. are negotiating to set up their own separate cap and trade program by 2015 (along with four Canadian provinces). At that stage, American industry groups might start to lobby for uniform national regulations, rather than having to deal with a variety of carbon emissions regulations across the country. That has occurred in the past with other pollution measures.

That suggests to me a plausible route to a global agreement on climate change:
1. The more environmentally conscious American states restrict emissions of greenhouse gases.
2. The U.S. congress imposes national regulations on greenhouse gas emissions, at the behest of industry lobby groups that want uniform environmental laws across the country.
3. The U.S. then insists that other countries control greenhouse gases, and threatens trade sanctions if they don't comply. Major greenhouse gas emitters bring in these controls, because they don't want to risk losing the American market.

Why I could see this happening is that it doesn't rely on heroic, selfless gestures. Step 1 is already in progress, step 2 assumes an American government dominated by selfish lobbyists and step 3 assumes that the U.S. is a domineering superpower. Surely even the most jaded left-wing pessimist would concede those two points.

Of course this process might lead to quite weak global regulations, that don't emerge until some time in the 2020s. Hopefully it will be enough to spur big improvements in renewable energy and efficiency that cut greenhouse gas emissions in time. It's a bit of a long shot, but I'm revising my outlook from "Climate change will almost certainly end our civilisation in the latter 21st century" to "Climate change will probably end our civilisation in the latter 21st century."

Thoughts on the AFL Grand Final

2:20
I've never liked Qantas's sentimental advertising, trying to claim expat Aussie nostalgia for one company. Translating "I Still Call Australia Home" into an Aboriginal language makes the airline's use of the song even more obnoxious.

2:32
Just heard the national anthem, and couldn't help thinking that we've had a bit too much of that golden soil this week.

2:44
The Saints are choking big time at the start.

2:49
Riewoldt just managed the best non-mark I've ever seen.

2:59
The game's turning around - Geelong are bending, will they break? St. Kilda really need to make this pressure pay off.

3:21
St. Kilda are dominating, but that's about the fourth easy shot on goal they've missed.

3:23
And now their margin is less than a goal.

3:29
Ablett really is brilliant at everything - even milking the free kicks.

3:32
Quality match considering how wet it is.

3:34
Can you choke in front of your defensive goal? Because I think Zac Dawson just managed it.

3:36
Dawson's no longer the goat after seeing the replay. The goal umpire performed much worse.

3:41
Although Millburn's trying hard to be the goat by arguing that goal and giving away another.

3:50
Good point from the commentators - Geelong are still playing a dry weather game with all the handballs. Wonder if they'll change tactics in the second half?

3:59
Just saw an ad for the latest disaster movie. Really not looking forward to three years of hearing about the Mayan calendar's millennium bug.

4:10
Great commentary on Goddard: "He's OK, if you can can a bloody nose OK. Maybe it's even broken. In football terms it's probably still OK."

4:14
Amused by the fan who incorporated his white beard into the St. Kilda logo painted on his face.

4:21
Geelong seem to be dropping off here.

4:22
Great goal from Geelong. Shows how much I know.

4:34
Could that be the matchwinning goal from Montagne? Just feels like St. Kilda taking the lead at the end of that scoreless passage could make the difference.

4:44
Hope Geelong do pull this off. I like their open, active style of play, and if they only lose 2 out of 3 grand finals, nobody will try to play that way again.

4:51
Ooh, sunshine to go with the rain.

4:54
I don't know that Steve Johnson has managed anything productive this game.

4:59
Next goal wins, I think.

5:01
Great commentary in homage to Kipling: "Ablett kept his feet when all about him were losing theirs."

5:04
Still haven't had that decisive goal.

5:06
Now we have, and what a goal it was from Chapman. Can the Cats hang on?

5:09
Well, Johnson did well to force the ball over the line there.

5:12
Congrats, Geelong. That last goal was rubbing it in a bit, though.

Prius Ads: Why?

I've seen a few TV ads for the new Prius in the last week, which is a change. There wasn't much advertising for the earlier versions, and certainly no TV commercials. Toyota only made a few of those prior Priuses, and mostly relied on word of mouth to shift them.

Hopefully the move to TV ads show that the new hybrids have been manufactured in sufficient quantities to justify advertising. That would be an encouraging sign that the technology is going mainstream, and that we're well on the way to all-electric cars.

However the ads still seemed to be emphasising the novelty of the Prius, rather than promoting it as a great car to drive. This makes me worry that Toyota is still marketing to a very limited audience of geeky environmentalists (e.g. me), but now even this small market segment needs a big ad campaign.

Pretty Steel Town by the Beach

Today a group of us from work took a trip to the steel mill in Port Kembla, south of Sydney. It was fun getting out and seeing a plant, rather than just assembling and analysing information on them. The highlight was watching the steelmaking furnace being charged with molten iron and limestone, and then seeing the oxygen blow through it and drive the slag off the top. The rolling mill was also impressive: you could feel the heat radiating off the steel plate at a distance of 10 or 20 metres.

As we were driving back, I was struck by how pleasant Wollongong is, given that it's built around Australia's largest steelworks. The stereotype of an industrial town is grim, dirty and unfashionable, but Wollongong has picturesque mountains and beautiful beaches, with enough of a sea breeze to disperse the smoke from the mills. There's something quite Australian about having a pretty steel town by the beach.

Tilting at Windmills: It's Not Just Me

I've written before about how wind power is great, but that some of the opposition to it might stem from the threatening appearance of three-bladed windmills. Trust my favourite cartoonist to express the same sentiment, but in a humourous fashion.

Yoplait is Getting Brazen

I've just eaten some yogurt that had a very realistic lemon cheesecake flavour, including a biscuit crust, despite being very smooth and obviously lacking any crumbled biscuit pieces. A check of the ingredients list confirmed the absence of any actual pastry. Most fruit flavoured yogurts include a small amount of real strawberry or mango so you can pretend that the fruit is what you're tasting. However in this case it's blatantly obvious that the crust flavour is generated entirely by added chemicals.

In a way, I'm quite impressed with the artistry of this concoction, and the food scientists' ability to dissociate flavour and texture so completely. We are getting closer to the world described in a certain movie that came out one decade and one week ago.

Evening Classes

I've had six weeks of lectures for my part-time commerce degree, and they're going well. I find the evening to be a good time for lectures, as I'm fairly alert at that time of day. I actually concentrate better during a 3 hour lecture beginning at 6pm than during a 1 hour lecture beginning at 2pm. Come to think of it, I'm being paid to deal with the mid-afternoon torpor, then getting to work on my own qualifications during a peak period.

It probably helps that the subject material has been interesting. I'm particularly enjoying introductory microeconomics, which is a nice blend of cynicism and simple graphs.

Thought We Were Having a Credit Crunch

Today I received an unsolicited offer to increase the limit on my credit card by 40%. I find this rather odd, because the current limit is quite high enough, and I've never used more than about a quarter of it.

I'm not sure whether this makes me feel reassured or disconcerted about the Australian banking system. Is it good that Commonwealth Bank still have plenty of money to lend, or bad that they're trying to extend credit to someone who didn't even ask for it? I wish the clowns would direct their funds (raised with the help of taxpayer guarantees) towards the businesses that could use it more than me.

Grounded

Today is the first anniversary of my return to Sydney after more than six years in the U.S. and then the U.K. It feels good to be settling down, especially in the place that feels like home.

It's also good that I've avoided taking any flights in that time, after travelling a lot in the time I lived in England. While I enjoyed seeing so many European cities (particularly when work was paying!), I was rather sick of Manchester airport by the end of 2007. Today I celebrate a full year without jet lag, carbon footprint guilt, aviation security checks or economy class seating.