Climate Change Optimism

I just came across the most hopeful article I've read on climate change for ages.

The one paragraph summary is that there is already a limited cap and trade program involving ten states on the east coast of the U.S. Another seven states in the western U.S. are negotiating to set up their own separate cap and trade program by 2015 (along with four Canadian provinces). At that stage, American industry groups might start to lobby for uniform national regulations, rather than having to deal with a variety of carbon emissions regulations across the country. That has occurred in the past with other pollution measures.

That suggests to me a plausible route to a global agreement on climate change:
1. The more environmentally conscious American states restrict emissions of greenhouse gases.
2. The U.S. congress imposes national regulations on greenhouse gas emissions, at the behest of industry lobby groups that want uniform environmental laws across the country.
3. The U.S. then insists that other countries control greenhouse gases, and threatens trade sanctions if they don't comply. Major greenhouse gas emitters bring in these controls, because they don't want to risk losing the American market.

Why I could see this happening is that it doesn't rely on heroic, selfless gestures. Step 1 is already in progress, step 2 assumes an American government dominated by selfish lobbyists and step 3 assumes that the U.S. is a domineering superpower. Surely even the most jaded left-wing pessimist would concede those two points.

Of course this process might lead to quite weak global regulations, that don't emerge until some time in the 2020s. Hopefully it will be enough to spur big improvements in renewable energy and efficiency that cut greenhouse gas emissions in time. It's a bit of a long shot, but I'm revising my outlook from "Climate change will almost certainly end our civilisation in the latter 21st century" to "Climate change will probably end our civilisation in the latter 21st century."

Thoughts on the AFL Grand Final

2:20
I've never liked Qantas's sentimental advertising, trying to claim expat Aussie nostalgia for one company. Translating "I Still Call Australia Home" into an Aboriginal language makes the airline's use of the song even more obnoxious.

2:32
Just heard the national anthem, and couldn't help thinking that we've had a bit too much of that golden soil this week.

2:44
The Saints are choking big time at the start.

2:49
Riewoldt just managed the best non-mark I've ever seen.

2:59
The game's turning around - Geelong are bending, will they break? St. Kilda really need to make this pressure pay off.

3:21
St. Kilda are dominating, but that's about the fourth easy shot on goal they've missed.

3:23
And now their margin is less than a goal.

3:29
Ablett really is brilliant at everything - even milking the free kicks.

3:32
Quality match considering how wet it is.

3:34
Can you choke in front of your defensive goal? Because I think Zac Dawson just managed it.

3:36
Dawson's no longer the goat after seeing the replay. The goal umpire performed much worse.

3:41
Although Millburn's trying hard to be the goat by arguing that goal and giving away another.

3:50
Good point from the commentators - Geelong are still playing a dry weather game with all the handballs. Wonder if they'll change tactics in the second half?

3:59
Just saw an ad for the latest disaster movie. Really not looking forward to three years of hearing about the Mayan calendar's millennium bug.

4:10
Great commentary on Goddard: "He's OK, if you can can a bloody nose OK. Maybe it's even broken. In football terms it's probably still OK."

4:14
Amused by the fan who incorporated his white beard into the St. Kilda logo painted on his face.

4:21
Geelong seem to be dropping off here.

4:22
Great goal from Geelong. Shows how much I know.

4:34
Could that be the matchwinning goal from Montagne? Just feels like St. Kilda taking the lead at the end of that scoreless passage could make the difference.

4:44
Hope Geelong do pull this off. I like their open, active style of play, and if they only lose 2 out of 3 grand finals, nobody will try to play that way again.

4:51
Ooh, sunshine to go with the rain.

4:54
I don't know that Steve Johnson has managed anything productive this game.

4:59
Next goal wins, I think.

5:01
Great commentary in homage to Kipling: "Ablett kept his feet when all about him were losing theirs."

5:04
Still haven't had that decisive goal.

5:06
Now we have, and what a goal it was from Chapman. Can the Cats hang on?

5:09
Well, Johnson did well to force the ball over the line there.

5:12
Congrats, Geelong. That last goal was rubbing it in a bit, though.

Prius Ads: Why?

I've seen a few TV ads for the new Prius in the last week, which is a change. There wasn't much advertising for the earlier versions, and certainly no TV commercials. Toyota only made a few of those prior Priuses, and mostly relied on word of mouth to shift them.

Hopefully the move to TV ads show that the new hybrids have been manufactured in sufficient quantities to justify advertising. That would be an encouraging sign that the technology is going mainstream, and that we're well on the way to all-electric cars.

However the ads still seemed to be emphasising the novelty of the Prius, rather than promoting it as a great car to drive. This makes me worry that Toyota is still marketing to a very limited audience of geeky environmentalists (e.g. me), but now even this small market segment needs a big ad campaign.

Pretty Steel Town by the Beach

Today a group of us from work took a trip to the steel mill in Port Kembla, south of Sydney. It was fun getting out and seeing a plant, rather than just assembling and analysing information on them. The highlight was watching the steelmaking furnace being charged with molten iron and limestone, and then seeing the oxygen blow through it and drive the slag off the top. The rolling mill was also impressive: you could feel the heat radiating off the steel plate at a distance of 10 or 20 metres.

As we were driving back, I was struck by how pleasant Wollongong is, given that it's built around Australia's largest steelworks. The stereotype of an industrial town is grim, dirty and unfashionable, but Wollongong has picturesque mountains and beautiful beaches, with enough of a sea breeze to disperse the smoke from the mills. There's something quite Australian about having a pretty steel town by the beach.

Tilting at Windmills: It's Not Just Me

I've written before about how wind power is great, but that some of the opposition to it might stem from the threatening appearance of three-bladed windmills. Trust my favourite cartoonist to express the same sentiment, but in a humourous fashion.

Yoplait is Getting Brazen

I've just eaten some yogurt that had a very realistic lemon cheesecake flavour, including a biscuit crust, despite being very smooth and obviously lacking any crumbled biscuit pieces. A check of the ingredients list confirmed the absence of any actual pastry. Most fruit flavoured yogurts include a small amount of real strawberry or mango so you can pretend that the fruit is what you're tasting. However in this case it's blatantly obvious that the crust flavour is generated entirely by added chemicals.

In a way, I'm quite impressed with the artistry of this concoction, and the food scientists' ability to dissociate flavour and texture so completely. We are getting closer to the world described in a certain movie that came out one decade and one week ago.

Evening Classes

I've had six weeks of lectures for my part-time commerce degree, and they're going well. I find the evening to be a good time for lectures, as I'm fairly alert at that time of day. I actually concentrate better during a 3 hour lecture beginning at 6pm than during a 1 hour lecture beginning at 2pm. Come to think of it, I'm being paid to deal with the mid-afternoon torpor, then getting to work on my own qualifications during a peak period.

It probably helps that the subject material has been interesting. I'm particularly enjoying introductory microeconomics, which is a nice blend of cynicism and simple graphs.